So, who was behind the assassination?
In a country where you don't know the koo3 min el boo3, you cannot make a calculated guesstimate on anything, because the track record of finding the perpetrators is not very reassuring. Whoever is doing this, is very well aware that no one will be able to pinpoint anything in any direction, and therefore, their work will be a success no matter what. Now, why are these attempts successful? Because Lebanese politicians are idiots, or traitors in the least. Whenever something happens, every dumb politician makes a statement to "condemn" the attacks and to register a point in his own favor and against his political opponents, as if they are behind it. The other opponents condemn in their turn, and return the accusation. Thus, the people are confused, and these stupid politicians give an excuse for the doers to do again what they did, and the cycle continues. Two words of advice to all Lebanese Politicians on these occasions:
"SHUT UP!"
This is none of your business people. Leave it to the specialized people in the field to find out who and why and what. Just shut up.
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Drop Quiz
The bill for the tribunal was sent yesterday for the president to sign. If the president does not sign it, or if he rejects it, it will go to the parliment for a vote. The president has 15 days to make a decision. I think that he will use all of them to gain time for another assassination. He will not reject it straight away. The president is infront of a quiz right now:
Q: You receive the bill for the international tribunal for approval, what do you do?
A- You reject it immediately and it goes to the parliment
B- You approve it
C-You wait 15 days and something happens in these 15 days
(Hint: if it is neither A or B, then we have motive established)
Q: You receive the bill for the international tribunal for approval, what do you do?
A- You reject it immediately and it goes to the parliment
B- You approve it
C-You wait 15 days and something happens in these 15 days
(Hint: if it is neither A or B, then we have motive established)
Sunday, November 26, 2006
The flat truth
After the assassination of Pierre Gemayel, some people went down to the streets and burned pictures of Mr. Michel Aoun. The Tayyer website mentioned that these people were not identified as being Kataeb, but some other Lebanese political group in an indication to the Lebanese Forces.
On the other hand, and on the forum of the official and the unofficial forums of the Lebanese Forces, there were so many voices rising against Mr. Aoun, as if he was the personality to blame for the assassination.
During the dark ages of man, people thought that the earth was flat and motionless, and that the sun, the moon and the planets and stars rotated around the earth. There were many scientific formulas to calculate the years, the days, and even eclipses based on that assumption, and these formulas were extremely accurate. But as accurate as they were, one fact remained, and it was the fact that they were based on wrong assumptions.
Back to present day Lebanon, Mr. Aoun mentioned that this assassination might be to drive a wedge between the Lebanese Christians. Whether Mr. Aoun thinks that the world rotates around him or not is a different matter, but in this case, his calculations seem to be working.
On the other hand, and on the forum of the official and the unofficial forums of the Lebanese Forces, there were so many voices rising against Mr. Aoun, as if he was the personality to blame for the assassination.
During the dark ages of man, people thought that the earth was flat and motionless, and that the sun, the moon and the planets and stars rotated around the earth. There were many scientific formulas to calculate the years, the days, and even eclipses based on that assumption, and these formulas were extremely accurate. But as accurate as they were, one fact remained, and it was the fact that they were based on wrong assumptions.
Back to present day Lebanon, Mr. Aoun mentioned that this assassination might be to drive a wedge between the Lebanese Christians. Whether Mr. Aoun thinks that the world rotates around him or not is a different matter, but in this case, his calculations seem to be working.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Just so that you would know
So, what would the international tribunal achieve? Will it bring the Syrian president in front of the international court as a suspect? Will it be able to bring down the current Syrian regime? If it does, what are the alternatives?
The latest killing was aimed at curtailing the current Lebanese government from approving the draft for the international tribunal. But what is this tribunal all about? It is obvious that the US ambassador in Lebanon have been meeting on regular basis with Lebanese politicians, especially from the March 14th group. Today, he had a meeting with President Amin Gemayel and Mr. Samir Geagea. This comes after Amin's son was brutally assassinated.
The United States is looking for its best interests in the region, and its best interests at the current time rotate around Iraq. This is where the American troops are, and this is where the American interest lies. If you take a look at the region's map, you will notice that there are 2 countries surrounding Iraq, yes, you guessed it, Syria & Iran.
Therefore, this clamp must be broken, and the way to achieve it is to break the weakest link: Syria. Once Syria becomes pro-American, and a pro-American government is installed there, it will diffuse the pressure in Iraq enormously. This would bring to a halt the rising violence in Iraq. Syria is the key to a secure Iraq, and the USA has a chance to achieve that without cutting a deal with the current Syrian regime. The Americans are tired of dealing with sneaky governments. They want their own people out there just doing as they are told. The next regime will be a toy in their hands.
Syria therefore is fighting a war on 3 fronts: Inside Syria, in Lebanon and in Iraq. Inside Syria, people are being "suicided", in Lebanon "Assassinated", and in Iraq, well, you know.
The international tribunal is the first step towards building the right amount of pressure on the Syrian regime for its ultimate demise. But the USA surely has the right candidate for the take over: Good Ol' Abd el Halim Khaddam.
That is the main reason, Mr. Walid Jumblat has spoken well about the old snake Khaddam, and about his former brother in arms the suicided Mr. Kanaan. He already knows the endgame, and he knows whom to side with. He is applying the old Lebanese proverb:
"When Nations change, guard your head".
And he is guarding that balding head of his by saying all the right words that the USA wants to hear. Hizbullah on the other hand is not so clueless. They are caught somewhere in the middle, and they carry an Iranian tag that was intensified after the war with Israel. To disarm would be suicide for them, and for Syria. They have no other choice: Either keep going, or get going. That is why, Mr. Geagea said today that Hizbullah ministers must go back on their resignation, because when Syria is done with its enemies, it will turn against its friends. It is a warning sign for the Hizb.
Mr. Aoun seems to be clueless, or maybe he just does not care. He seems to think that he can save Lebanon by being Lebanese. His main goal is to topple the current government in order to establish a strong "Lebanese" government that takes care of its citizens and format a new political base for a modern Lebanon. Mr. Aoun hates the current Syrian regime, but not as much as he hated the one that preceded it, and its Lebanese associates (Inc.), and he wants to bring them all to justice. He is a man on a mission swimming against the tide. On the other hand, his siding with Hizbullah is like putting his hand in the snake's den, especially that this snake cannot control its behaviors "as seen on TV". A small joke in a comic show almost took Lebanon back to the civil war era. That was a warning sign to the Sayyed that he does not really control his popular base.
17 days to the Christmas of the March 14th Coalition. If they can keep themselves from getting killed, and keep the constitutionality of their approval on the tribunal, then they would have passed a milestone in their journey. The prime minister is not taking any chances. He is setting up bedrooms in the Serail till Monday.
The latest killing was aimed at curtailing the current Lebanese government from approving the draft for the international tribunal. But what is this tribunal all about? It is obvious that the US ambassador in Lebanon have been meeting on regular basis with Lebanese politicians, especially from the March 14th group. Today, he had a meeting with President Amin Gemayel and Mr. Samir Geagea. This comes after Amin's son was brutally assassinated.
The United States is looking for its best interests in the region, and its best interests at the current time rotate around Iraq. This is where the American troops are, and this is where the American interest lies. If you take a look at the region's map, you will notice that there are 2 countries surrounding Iraq, yes, you guessed it, Syria & Iran.
Therefore, this clamp must be broken, and the way to achieve it is to break the weakest link: Syria. Once Syria becomes pro-American, and a pro-American government is installed there, it will diffuse the pressure in Iraq enormously. This would bring to a halt the rising violence in Iraq. Syria is the key to a secure Iraq, and the USA has a chance to achieve that without cutting a deal with the current Syrian regime. The Americans are tired of dealing with sneaky governments. They want their own people out there just doing as they are told. The next regime will be a toy in their hands.
Syria therefore is fighting a war on 3 fronts: Inside Syria, in Lebanon and in Iraq. Inside Syria, people are being "suicided", in Lebanon "Assassinated", and in Iraq, well, you know.
The international tribunal is the first step towards building the right amount of pressure on the Syrian regime for its ultimate demise. But the USA surely has the right candidate for the take over: Good Ol' Abd el Halim Khaddam.
That is the main reason, Mr. Walid Jumblat has spoken well about the old snake Khaddam, and about his former brother in arms the suicided Mr. Kanaan. He already knows the endgame, and he knows whom to side with. He is applying the old Lebanese proverb:
"When Nations change, guard your head".
And he is guarding that balding head of his by saying all the right words that the USA wants to hear. Hizbullah on the other hand is not so clueless. They are caught somewhere in the middle, and they carry an Iranian tag that was intensified after the war with Israel. To disarm would be suicide for them, and for Syria. They have no other choice: Either keep going, or get going. That is why, Mr. Geagea said today that Hizbullah ministers must go back on their resignation, because when Syria is done with its enemies, it will turn against its friends. It is a warning sign for the Hizb.
Mr. Aoun seems to be clueless, or maybe he just does not care. He seems to think that he can save Lebanon by being Lebanese. His main goal is to topple the current government in order to establish a strong "Lebanese" government that takes care of its citizens and format a new political base for a modern Lebanon. Mr. Aoun hates the current Syrian regime, but not as much as he hated the one that preceded it, and its Lebanese associates (Inc.), and he wants to bring them all to justice. He is a man on a mission swimming against the tide. On the other hand, his siding with Hizbullah is like putting his hand in the snake's den, especially that this snake cannot control its behaviors "as seen on TV". A small joke in a comic show almost took Lebanon back to the civil war era. That was a warning sign to the Sayyed that he does not really control his popular base.
17 days to the Christmas of the March 14th Coalition. If they can keep themselves from getting killed, and keep the constitutionality of their approval on the tribunal, then they would have passed a milestone in their journey. The prime minister is not taking any chances. He is setting up bedrooms in the Serail till Monday.
The Lightning and the Thunder
Yesterday, another Gemayel was assassinated. It was not an explosive event like the one that killed his uncle, or the one that killed Rafiq Hariri, but a more swift killing, quick as a lightning, so quick that no one was able to see, follow, or catch the assassins. Two cars and 13 bullets. Yet something tells me that the Thundering Boom is going to resound all over Lebanon in the coming days. I hope it rains.
The death and rise of Lebanon
Within a region burdened by numerous conflicts, Lebanon today stands on the verge of freedom or annexation and death. But if history ever taught us something about Lebanon, it is that this country might be destined to die every once in a while, so as to rise again from the ashes of its consumed history, and herein lies its strength and magnificence. The fear of death will only lead to a slow death, therefore, we must plunge into the battle undaunted, for the closer we get to death, the nearer our resurrection.
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