So, what would the international tribunal achieve? Will it bring the Syrian president in front of the international court as a suspect? Will it be able to bring down the current Syrian regime? If it does, what are the alternatives?
The latest killing was aimed at curtailing the current Lebanese government from approving the draft for the international tribunal. But what is this tribunal all about? It is obvious that the US ambassador in Lebanon have been meeting on regular basis with Lebanese politicians, especially from the March 14th group. Today, he had a meeting with President Amin Gemayel and Mr. Samir Geagea. This comes after Amin's son was brutally assassinated.
The United States is looking for its best interests in the region, and its best interests at the current time rotate around Iraq. This is where the American troops are, and this is where the American interest lies. If you take a look at the region's map, you will notice that there are 2 countries surrounding Iraq, yes, you guessed it, Syria & Iran.
Therefore, this clamp must be broken, and the way to achieve it is to break the weakest link: Syria. Once Syria becomes pro-American, and a pro-American government is installed there, it will diffuse the pressure in Iraq enormously. This would bring to a halt the rising violence in Iraq. Syria is the key to a secure Iraq, and the USA has a chance to achieve that without cutting a deal with the current Syrian regime. The Americans are tired of dealing with sneaky governments. They want their own people out there just doing as they are told. The next regime will be a toy in their hands.
Syria therefore is fighting a war on 3 fronts: Inside Syria, in Lebanon and in Iraq. Inside Syria, people are being "suicided", in Lebanon "Assassinated", and in Iraq, well, you know.
The international tribunal is the first step towards building the right amount of pressure on the Syrian regime for its ultimate demise. But the USA surely has the right candidate for the take over: Good Ol' Abd el Halim Khaddam.
That is the main reason, Mr. Walid Jumblat has spoken well about the old snake Khaddam, and about his former brother in arms the suicided Mr. Kanaan. He already knows the endgame, and he knows whom to side with. He is applying the old Lebanese proverb:
"When Nations change, guard your head".
And he is guarding that balding head of his by saying all the right words that the USA wants to hear. Hizbullah on the other hand is not so clueless. They are caught somewhere in the middle, and they carry an Iranian tag that was intensified after the war with Israel. To disarm would be suicide for them, and for Syria. They have no other choice: Either keep going, or get going. That is why, Mr. Geagea said today that Hizbullah ministers must go back on their resignation, because when Syria is done with its enemies, it will turn against its friends. It is a warning sign for the Hizb.
Mr. Aoun seems to be clueless, or maybe he just does not care. He seems to think that he can save Lebanon by being Lebanese. His main goal is to topple the current government in order to establish a strong "Lebanese" government that takes care of its citizens and format a new political base for a modern Lebanon. Mr. Aoun hates the current Syrian regime, but not as much as he hated the one that preceded it, and its Lebanese associates (Inc.), and he wants to bring them all to justice. He is a man on a mission swimming against the tide. On the other hand, his siding with Hizbullah is like putting his hand in the snake's den, especially that this snake cannot control its behaviors "as seen on TV". A small joke in a comic show almost took Lebanon back to the civil war era. That was a warning sign to the Sayyed that he does not really control his popular base.
17 days to the Christmas of the March 14th Coalition. If they can keep themselves from getting killed, and keep the constitutionality of their approval on the tribunal, then they would have passed a milestone in their journey. The prime minister is not taking any chances. He is setting up bedrooms in the Serail till Monday.