Tuesday, December 5, 2006

The Devil is in the details

What is the basis of conflict between the 2 opposing groups? After the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, Power was up for grabs, and is still so far. Both parties want a change, but it is in the sequence of this change that their intentions appear.

March 14 Sequence:

1- Change the President
2- Change the Government and make a new electoral law
3- A new Parliament

Aoun & Hizbullah:

1- Change the government and make a new electoral law
2- A new Parliament
3- A new President

So what does this mean?

For March 14: It means that they do not have the popular base for a parliamentary majority if a new elections happen. Therefore, they need a new President on their side. Once that happens, it is easy to tailor an electoral law that insures that they maintain the majority in the next elections. they already have the majority in the Parliament right now. Once they have the president, they will have the:

1- Presidency
2- Government
3- Parliament

For Aoun and Hizbullah: They have the majority of the votes on the popular base. If a new government with at least a third from their guys in it is formed, the electoral law that it has to form must adhere to a consensus or it will not pass. When a new electoral law is passed and a new elections happen, this insures that they get the majority in the Parliament to elect a president from their camp, and of course, it will be "Aoun". Once this happens, they will have:

1- The Presidency
2- The Parliament
3- A shared government with March 14 (Thus the statement: We will not eliminate you, but you want to eliminate us"

UPDATE Dec 12, 2006:

Today (or yesterday), Mr. Samir Geagea reaffirmed the sequences stated above as published in Annahar newspaper.

1 comment:

Walid said...


You hit the nail right on the head.

It's not about "The Truth" vs. "The Resistance". It's about whether Lebanon will have an election law that qualifies it to be a democracy, or not.